The Impact of Trade Sanctions on the Supply and Demand of Sports, Recreational, and Cultural Services in Iran: A Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 MA Student of Sport Management, Ardabil Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ardabil, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Sport Management, Ardabil Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ardabil, Iran

3 Assistant Professor of of Economics, Khalkhal Branch, Islamic Azad University, Khalkhal, Iran

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to investigate the impact of Trade Sanctions (TS) on the supply and demand indicators of Sports, Recreational, and Cultural (SRC) services in Iran.

Methods: The research was applied in terms of objective and employed a descriptive-analytical approach. Data collection was carried out through documentary and library-based methods. We employed a standard recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, based on the 2016 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) from the Central Bank of Iran. To assess the impact of TS, we simulated two scenarios involving simultaneous increases in import prices and decreases in export prices. Subsequently, we calculated the changes in indices related to the supply and demand of SRC services. This study fills a critical gap in the literature by employing a recursive dynamic CGE model to assess the impact of TS on the SRC services subsector in Iran, a topic that has been largely overlooked in previous research.

Results: The results showed that TS disproportionately impacted SRC services across supply and demand dimensions. Supply-side vulnerability manifested through significant reductions in domestic production, domestic sales, exports, and imports, all substantially exceeding economy-wide averages, except exports. Demand-side impacts included pronounced household consumption declines alongside severe contractions in government consumption and intermediate demand.

Conclusion: The findings reveal the subsector's pronounced vulnerability to external shocks like TS, highlighting the need for policymakers to strengthen infrastructure and mitigate the adverse effects of sanctions and potential damage.

Keywords

References

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Research in Sport Management and Marketing
Volume 6, Issue 4
2025
Pages 96-122

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