Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Department of Sport Science, Faculty of Humanities, University of Eyvanekey, Eyvanekey, Semnan, Iran
2
Department of Sports Sciences, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University
3
Department of Physical Education Instruction, Farhangian University, Shahid Chamran Campus, Tehran, Iran
10.22098/rsmm.2025.16936.1460
Abstract
Purpose: The main objective of this research is to evaluate the current status and simulate various scenarios for the development of billiard sports in Iran.
Method: This study employs fuzzy Delphi techniques, MICMAC analysis, and scenario writing to explore and identify the future trajectories of billiard sports in Iran. Fourteen experts and specialists in billiard sports and sports policy participated in the research process. The SPLISS framework, which consists of nine pillars categorized into three groups—"Inputs," "Capacities," and "Outputs"—was selected as the basis for analyzing these factors.
Results: The findings of the research indicate that the key factors for the successful development of billiard sports in Iran include financial investment, infrastructure development, government support, and active participation in international competitions. The scenario analysis predicts four potential future scenarios for the sport in Iran: the "Shadow of the Decline of Billiards," "Unstable Leap," "Golden Age of Billiards," and "Unsustainable Growth." In positive scenarios, such as the "Golden Age of Billiards," with extensive government support, sustainable investments, and the development of professional leagues, the sport can achieve success and sustainable growth. In contrast, negative scenarios such as the "Shadow of the Decline of Billiards" and "Unsustainable Growth" point to economic and structural challenges that could hinder the sustainable development of this sport.
Conclusion: The research emphasizes that to achieve positive scenarios and sustainable growth, a comprehensive and long-term approach is necessary. This approach should include strengthening infrastructure, supporting elite athletes, and increasing interaction with the international community.
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